Essay was a much-dreaded word among my students. It was the fall of 2011, and I was teaching English at Pyongyang University of Science and Technology in North Korea. Two hundred and seventy young men, and about 30 teachers, all Christian evangelicals besides me, were isolated together in a guarded compound, where our classes and movements were watched round the clock. Each lesson had to be approved by a group of North Korean staff known to us as the “counterparts.” Hoping to slip in information about the outside world, which we were not allowed to discuss, I had devised a lesson on essay writing, and it had been approved.
I had told my students that the essay would be as important as the final exam in calculating their grades for the semester, and they were very stressed. Each student was supposed to come up with his own topic and hand in a thesis and outline. When I asked them how it was going, they would sigh and say, “Disaster.”
I emphasized the importance of essays since, as scientists, they would one day have to write papers to prove their theories. But in reality, nothing was ever proven in their world, since everything was at the whim of the Great Leader. Their writing skills were as stunted as their research skills. Writing inevitably consisted of an endless repetition of his achievements, none of which was ever verified, since they lacked the concept of backing up a claim with evidence. A quick look at the articles in the daily newspaper revealed the exact same tone from start to finish, with neither progression nor pacing. There was no beginning and no end.
So the basic three- or five-paragraph essay—with a thesis, an introduction, a body paragraph with supporting details, and a conclusion—was entirely foreign to them. The idea they had the most difficulty comprehending was the introduction. I would tell them that it was like waving hello. How do you say hello in an interesting way, so that the reader is “hooked”? I offered many different examples, but still they would show up during office hours, shaking their heads and asking, “So this hook ... what is it?”
One morning, they shouted, “We beat Japan!” in unison as I walked into the classroom. Their national soccer team, Chollima, had just beaten Japan’s Samurai Blue team in a World Cup qualifying match. The match had taken place at Kim Il-sung Stadium and had been televised live.
Here, the rage against Japan remained as vivid as when Japan had colonized Korea more than half a century before. The students were exuberant, proudly telling me about Jong Tae-se, their national team’s striker, and another one of their players who had been scouted by Manchester United. They did not acknowledge the fact that Jong was in fact a third-generation Zainichi Korean, a term used for ethnic Koreans born, raised, and living in Japan whose loyalty lie with North Korea. In their eyes, Zainichi Koreans were Japanese, their sworn enemy, and yet at opportune moments they considered them North Koreans. I knew better than to comment on that.
“How exciting!” I said brightly. “Wouldn’t it be great if Chollima makes it to Brazil for the World Cup?” They all nodded, smiling.
It was not until later that day that I looked on the Internet (to which only the teachers were allowed access; the students were not aware of its existence) and learned that North Korea had already been knocked out, and the results had been announced some time ago. The match against Japan had to be played simply because it was a game owed. Either the students would not admit this, or they did not know the truth. Not only that, I learned that the game had not actually been televised live. Rather, it had been broadcast as soon as it ended, when the regime could be certain that their team had won. One student told me that it was very boring to watch only winning games. Moreover, no matter how hard I searched online, there was no mention of a North Korean footballer playing for Manchester United. As always, their government had sown misinformation, and my students’ claims lacked any basis in reality, so I could hardly expect them to back up their theses.
Instead of a lesson on sources, which was not possible there, I asked that they read a simple essay from 1997 that quoted President Bill Clinton on how important it was to make all schools wired. The counterparts had approved it because it related to our current textbook theme of college education. I hoped that they would grasp the significance of the Internet and how behind they were. I also gave them four recent articles—from the Princeton Review, the New York Times, the Financial Times, and Harvard Magazine—that mentioned Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook, and Twitter. None of the pieces evoked a response. Not even the sentence about Zuckerberg earning $100 billion from something he dreamed up in his college dorm seemed to interest them. It was possible that they viewed the reading as lies. Or perhaps the capitalist angle repelled them.
The next day, several students stopped by during office hours. They all wanted to change their essay topics. Curiously, the new topics they proposed all had to do with the ills of American society. One said he wanted to write about corporal punishment in American and Japanese middle schools. Another wanted to argue that the American government’s policy of deciding a baby’s future based on IQ tests should be forbidden. A third student wanted to write about the evils of allowing people to own guns so freely in America. A fourth student said biofuel was toxic and America was the biggest producer of it. A fifth wanted to change his topic to divorce. There was no divorce in the DPRK, but in America the rate was more than 50 percent, and divorce led to crime and mental illness, according to him. “So what happens when people are unhappy here after being married for a while?” I asked. The student looked at me blankly. Still another student wanted to write about how McDonald’s was horrible. The same student then asked me, “So what kind of food does McDonald’s make?”
One student asked me which country produced the most computer hackers; he had been taught that it was America. This question stumped me, especially since I had just seen a news item on CNN Asia about cybercrime by North Korea. Instead, I told him that computer crimes could be committed anywhere, by anyone, even a visitor, so it would be hard to pinpoint one country as the source.
Their collective decision to switch their essay topics to condemn America seemed to have been compelled by the articles about Zuckerberg. What I had intended as inspirational, they must have viewed as boasting and felt slighted. The nationalism that had been instilled in them for so many generations had produced a citizenry whose ego was so fragile that they refused to acknowledge the rest of the world.
My efforts to expand their awareness kept backfiring. When I had them write a paragraph about kimjang (the annual kimchi-making tradition), I was handed a pile of preachy, self-righteous tirades. Almost half the students claimed that kimchi was the most famous food in the world, and that all other nations were envious of it. One student wrote that the American government had named it the official food of the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. When I questioned him, he said everyone knew this fact and that he could even prove it since his Korean textbook said so. A quick Internet search revealed that a Japanese manufacturer had claimed that kimchi was a Japanese dish and proposed it as an official Olympic food but had been denied. Somehow this news item had been relayed to them in twisted form and was now treated as general knowledge.
To correct my students on each bit of misinformation was taxing and sometimes meant straying into dangerous territory. A colleague said to me, “No way. Don’t touch that. If their book said it was true, you can’t tell them that it’s a lie.”
They would show up during office hours, shaking their heads and asking, “So this hook ... what is it?”
Sometimes they would ask why I never ate much white rice. They piled their trays with huge heaps of it at every meal, whereas I always put just a little on my tray. I explained that I liked white rice but did not care for it all the time. They asked what kinds of food I ate other than rice and naengmyun, their national dish. I couldn’t exactly go on about fresh fruit smoothies and eggs Benedict, so I named two Western dishes I knew they had heard of: spaghetti and hot dogs. I knew that North Koreans enjoyed their own version of sausage because I had seen them lining up for it at the International Trade Fair. One of the students then wrote in his kimjang homework, “Those Koreans who prefer hot dogs and spaghetti over kimchi bring shame on their motherland by forgetting the superiority of kimchi.” Nothing, it seemed, could break through their belligerent isolation; moreover, this attitude left no room for any argument, since all roads led to just one conclusion. I returned the paper to him with a comment: “Why is it not possible to like both spaghetti and kimchi?”
After several lessons on the essay, a student said to me at dinner, “A strange thing happened during our social science class this afternoon.”
They never volunteered information about their Juche class, so I listened intently.
The student continued, “We had to write an essay!” He explained that they normally wrote short compositions in Korean, and he had never thought of them as essays before, but now he did, and it made him feel strange.
“What was so strange?” I asked.
“I don’t know,” he said, pausing thoughtfully. “I looked at it as an essay, and I realized that it was different now. Writing in English and writing in Korean are so different, but then it is also the same, and I kept thinking of the essay structure as I was writing it, and it made me feel strange.”
I did not question him further, but I thought I understood. It must have been deeply confusing to approach his writing on Juche like an essay. In his country there was no proof, no checks and balances—unless, of course, they wanted to prove that the Great Leader had single-handedly written hundreds of operas and thousands of books and saved the nation and done a miraculous number of things. Their entire system was designed not to be questioned and to squash critical thinking. So the form of an essay, in which a thesis had to be proven, was antithetical to their entire system. The writer of an essay acknowledges the arguments opposing his thesis and refutes them. Here, opposition was not an option.
I stared across at him and felt a familiar sick feeling. Perhaps this was only the beginning. The questions they would have. The questions they should be asking. The questions they would realize they had not been asking because they did not imagine they could, or because asking meant that they could no longer exist in their system.
Adapted from Without You, There Is No Us: My Time With the Sons of North Korea’s Elite by Suki Kim. Copyright © 2014 by Suki Kim. Adapted by permission of Crown Publishers, a division of Penguin Random House, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this adaptation may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
Correction, Dec. 2, 2014: This article’s headline originally misstated that Suki Kim taught English to graduate students in Pyongyang. She taught English to college students.
Without You, There Is No Us: My Time with the Sons of North Korea's Elite
After months of the two leaders threatening each other with nuclear weapons, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he wanted to meet with President Donald Trump — and Trump accepted.
If a meeting happens, it would be the first time a sitting US president had a face-to-face with the head of the North Korean regime. However, there’s of course still a chance that Trump and Kim don’t meet, or that they fail to reach an agreement even if they do.
Still, it’s quite the turnaround. Earlier this year, the US and North Korea were in the middle of a heated war of words. Trump tweeted on January 2 that he has a “Nuclear Button” on his desk that is “much bigger & more powerful” than North Korea’s — even though that button doesn’t exist. Trump’s tweet was in response to Kim’s New Year’s Day speech in which he said the US should know “a nuclear button is always on the desk of my office, and this is just a reality, not a threat.”
Buttons or no buttons, talks or no talks, the North Korean threat is real. Pyongyang has an intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially hit all of the United States, including major cities like Chicago, New York, and Washington, DC. And the US military believes North Korea has the capability to “miniaturize” a nuclear weapon to fit on a missile. (It’s unclear, though, if Pyongyang is capable of mounting the bomb atop a missile and hitting the US with it.)
So the stakes for a possible Trump-Kim summit are quite high. But wait: Why is all of this happening? Why are we talking about historic negotiations to avoid a possible war with a tiny, desperately poor country on the other side of the world? It’s a long, complicated story that goes back decades — all the way to the Korean War in the early 1950s. It’s a story of diplomatic failures, madcap dictators, and tricky geopolitical maneuvering.
So for those of you who are confused, don’t sweat it — we’ve got you covered. Here are answers to some of the most basic questions about North Korea that will help you get up to speed on where we are in the conflict, how we got here, and where we’re likely headed.
1) What is North Korea?
North Korea, known officially as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a small country sandwiched between China and South Korea in Northeast Asia. It is home to an estimated 25 million people, nearly 3 million of whom live in the capital city of Pyongyang.
Since 1948, it has been run by the Kim family. The first leader was Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, who was in power from 1948 to 1994. He was treated like a god in both life and death. He is still known today as the “Great Leader” and the “Eternal President,” and monuments glorifying his reign are everywhere in the country.
Kim Il Sung’s cult of personality really began to take root in 1950, when he led the Soviet-backed invasion of South Korea, kicking off the Korean War. The United States intervened in the war on behalf of South Korea, and China later intervened on behalf of the communist North. It was a bloody war that ultimately killed some 5 million soldiers and civilians.
At the war’s end in 1953, the two countries became separated by a demilitarized zone, or DMZ, and remain so to this day. Technically, both sides are still at war, since an armistice (truce) was signed, not a peace treaty.
After the deal was signed, South Korea — with heavy US financial and security support — began to slowly transform itself into what is now one of the world’s wealthiest, best-educated, and most technologically advanced societies.
The North also briefly flourished because of support from the Soviet Union and China, but those good times didn’t last. Mismanagement, crippling debt, and a series of devastating droughts and floods demolished the North Korean economy and set off what would eventually become lingering food shortages in the country.
At the same time, the Soviet Union was suffering its own economic troubles, causing its leaders to pull back on aid to North Korea. When the Soviet Union finally collapsed in the early 1990s, the North Korean economy went into a dramatic downward spiral, culminating in a horrendous famine that killed between 600,000 and 1 million people.
Yet through all of this, Kim Il Sung cultivated a powerful cult of personality. North Koreans were inundated with propaganda branding Kim as the country’s benevolent father figure who was transforming the country into a glorious socialist utopia through his unique brand of ideology, known as “juche.” Translated as “self-reliance,” juche stresses total independence in all facets of national life, from foreign policy to economics to national defense.
When Kim died at the age of 82, the Korean Central News Agency, the country’s official news organization, published a glowing seven-page announcement that said "he turned our country, where age-old backwardness and poverty had prevailed, into a powerful Socialist country, independent, self-supporting and self-reliant.” He was, as the news agency concluded, the “sun of the nation.”
Since Kim’s death in 1994, his son and grandson, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un, respectively, have carried on his legacy, aiming to run the country exactly like he did. They purposefully demonstrate in their own propaganda how closely they hew to Kim Il Sung’s style of governance. Kim Jong Un even goes out of his way to look as much like his grandfather as he possibly can.
Despite some modest reforms to the economy under the two younger Kims, the country is still far, far behind the rest of the world. The CIA ranks North Korea as the 215th-poorest country out of the 230 it tracks, and its people live on about $1,700 a year.
North Korea is almost solely reliant on China as a trading partner, with most of its money coming from the millions of tons of coal it exports to China every year. It also sends iron ore, seafood, and clothing to the Chinese. This is why the news that China had suspended its coal imports from North Korea back in February was such a big deal, even though China’s overall trade with North Korea has increased.
2) Is life for the average North Korean as bad as they say?
Yeah, it is.
As Human Rights Watch notes in gruesome detail:
North Korea remains one of the most repressive authoritarian states in the world. …Kim Jong-un continued to generate fearful obedience by using public executions, arbitrary detention, and forced labor; tightening travel restrictions to prevent North Koreans from escaping and seeking refuge overseas; and systematically persecuting those with religious contacts inside and outside the country…
[G]ross human rights violations committed by the government included murder, enslavement, torture, imprisonment, rape, forced abortion, and other sexual violence, and constituted crimes against humanity.
Nothing exemplifies these violations like the gulags, or forced labor camps, run by the state. Usually, detentions there end in death — and not just for the imprisoned person. North Korea abides by the “three generations of punishment” rule. Basically, if the government thinks you committed a crime, you, your children, and your grandchildren have to suffer the consequences too. A 2017 report by the International Bar Association War Crimes Committee noted that some of the prisons are “as terrible [as] Nazi camps.”
Some North Koreans still find ways to live dignified and relatable lives despite the horrid conditions. In fact, in many ways, life in North Korea can be normal. Subway trains fill with people during rush hour in the capital city, Pyongyang. The city also now suffers from traffic jams, as more people have cars and want to get around on their own. Fashionable Western clothes are available in North Korean stores, and some North Koreans are even getting plastic surgery, despite the procedure’s illegality.
North Koreans also enjoy surfing the country’s intranet, but their choices are very limited with fewer than 30 sites on offer. There, citizens can find a selection of North Korean recipes and films. Of course, there is also a big section that allows Kim Jong Un to show off what he is doing throughout the day.
The few superrich North Koreans — who usually work in the government, the military, or state-run businesses — aren’t too dissimilar from superrich people anywhere else. They lead fairly cosmopolitan lives, frequenting an elite area of the capital nicknamed “Pyonghattan.” They wear designer clothes, eat at fancy restaurants, and go on vacations.
But of course, that is not the norm. Out in the rural areas, “life is little more than a daily struggle to find enough food to stay alive,” Alf Evans, a British aid worker who spent time in rural North Korea in 2013, told the Telegraph. “Every scrap of earth that can be used to grow something is being used,” he said.
3) Why is the US-North Korea relationship so fraught?
North Korea and the US have been at odds ever since the US backed South Korea in the Korean War. Today, the US has 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea. That country is also America’s sixth-largest trading partner (about $112.2 billion total in two-way trade during 2016), underscored by the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement that went into effect on March 15, 2012 (something Trump may to “terminate”).
For these reasons, North Korea is not a fan of the United States. North Korean propaganda portrays America as an evil imperialist aggressor hell-bent on subjugating the Korean people. There is an entire museum dedicated to alleged American atrocities during the Korean War.
America isn’t exactly thrilled with North Korea either. There are many reasons why, but the main one is that North Korea won’t stop developing its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.
For years, North Korea has tried to develop a nuclear weapon that it can put on a missile and hit its enemies. Most experts believe the country wants nukes as a deterrent so that no foreign country (like, say, the United States) would dare attempt to remove the Kim regime from power.
While some think Kim Jong Un is an irrational, “crazy fat kid” — as Senate Armed Services Committee Chair John McCain labeled the North Korean leader in 2017 — experts see his actions to ensure the survival of his family’s rule as rational.
The theory is that the Kims have seen what happened to leaders who don’t have nuclear weapons. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein persuaded much of the world that he had restarted his country’s nuclear weapons program; he hadn’t, but the boasts helped spark the 2003 invasion that drove him from power. In Libya, Muammar Qaddafi gave up his program to build closer ties to the West, but was eventually ousted from power and killed by a mob.
The Kim family wants to survive, and having a credible nuclear weapons program is one way to ensure that it does.
North Korea has accelerated its nuclear program to the point where it can now produce a new bomb every “six or seven weeks.” And it now has an intercontinental ballistic missile that is theoretically capable of hitting every part of the United States. It’s still unclear, though, if North Korea can reliably place a nuclear weapon atop the missile and have it survive reentry into the atmosphere and detonate at its target.
4) How come China hasn't dealt with North Korea yet?
Trump has repeatedly pushed the idea that China, because of its economic influence, has the ability to rein in North Korea if it wants to. Specifically, the US wants China to cut off oil shipments to North Korea and either sharply limit or entirely halt broader trade with the country. However, after Chinese President Xi Jinping spent ten minutesexplaining the complexity of the issueto Trump during a meeting in April, Trump said he “realized it’s not so easy.”
So what are the things that make it “not so easy” for China to control North Korea?
First, China uses North Korea as a buffer. If the Koreas were to unify, which remains an extremely thin possibility right now, then for at least some period, American troops would be stationed in a country that borders China. For Beijing, that’s a no-no.
Second, should the Kim regime fall, the whole country could descend into chaos. Having that kind of instability, with millions of refugees flocking to the border, would not make the Chinese government happy. After all, China prides itself on stability in all its forms.
Finally, having America, Japan, and South Korea worried about North Korea takes the focus off China. China has many objectives in the region, and having its adversaries’ heads turned as it makes moves in the South China Sea and elsewhere is helpful to its cause.
All of these are reasons why China chooses not to be too hard on the Kim regime. China’s leaders may not like the Kim regime or want it to keep developing nuclear weapons, but they prefer that to the alternative scenario of a failed state on their Southern border or, perhaps even worse, an American-controlled state on their Southern border.
Even if China did more, of course, there’s no guarantee that North Korea — a proudly nationalist, nuclear-armed nation — would listen.
5) Is there any way to solve this?
The best outcome would be for North Korea to just decide to give up its nuclear weapons program. But that’s probably never going to happen. On the other side, the US could just accept that North Korea is going to have nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US homeland. That probably won’t happen either.
So what to do?
There are no easy answers, and this situation has confounded presidents and skilled national security officials from both parties. The Trump administration’s current approach, according to a joint statement issued in late April 2017 by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, is “to pressure North Korea into dismantling its nuclear, ballistic missile, and proliferation programs by tightening economic sanctions and pursuing diplomatic measures with our Allies and regional partners.”
In a 2017 interview with NPR, Tillerson put it more bluntly, stating that the goal is “a denuclearized North Korea” by way of a negotiated agreement.
But here’s the thing: We’ve tried this before, and it hasn’t worked yet. This is essentially the same policy the Obama administration pursued for the past eight years, to no avail.
Indeed, America and others have been trying to come to some sort of negotiated agreement with North Korea since 1985. And we’ve gotten really close twice. In 1994, the US and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework, in which the North agreed to freeze its plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid. However, the agreement collapsed in 2002, and by January 2003 the North had resumed its nuclear program.
Then in August 2003, the international community launched the so-called “Six Party Talks,” which were designed to get North Korea to halt its nuclear program through negotiations with five other countries: China, the United States, South Korea, Japan, and Russia.
In September 2005, it looked like the talks might work — North Korea formally agreed to abandon “all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs” in exchange for energy assistance from the other countries. But in 2009, amid disagreements over technical details related to verification, North Korea walked out on the talks. It says it will never return to the talks and maintains that it is no longer bound by their agreements. And it has been ramping up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs ever since.
The hope is that the administration’s “maximum pressure and engagement” strategy will lead to a diplomatic solution. Perhaps the Trump-Kim meeting might lead to a settled, peaceful outcome.
But if it doesn’t — and the Trump administration still refuses to allow North Korea to have a nuclear weapon that can hit the US mainland — then the only other option that seems to be on the table is a military strike targeting the North’s nuclear facilities. In other words, war.
6) What kind of relationships do other countries have with North Korea?
North Korea doesn’t have many friends.
It has China and, to a lesser degree, Russia, both of which oppose unilateral American military strikes on sovereign countries. The two countries believe that any US move would destabilize the region and harm their own interests. North Korea borders China and Russia, and any crisis on the peninsula would add extra strain to those borders.
(Fun fact: Did you know that if you want to drive from Finland to North Korea, you could drive only through one country? Yeah, Russia is that large.)
On its own, Russia also helps North Korea with its economic woes. Russian Railways is in discussion with the government in Pyongyang to expand the rail connections between the two countries. Moscow also invests heavily in North Korea’s energy sector and gives Kim’s regime hard currency, which it needs to purchase foreign goods. There are also around 10,000 North Koreans in Russia as part of a guest worker program providing cheap labor to Russia.
But North Korea’s cordial relations with other countries basically stop there. It understandably has a bad relationship with South Korea. It’s also hostile toward Japan, which Pyongyang has threatened to nuke many times. The most recent animosity stems from Japan’s harsh colonial rule of Korea from 1910 to 1945.
“Japan pushed Koreans to assimilate, requiring them to speak Japanese, take Japanese names, and worship at Shinto shrines,” writes Robert S. Boynton in the New Yorker. “Men were forced to labor in Japanese factories and mines, and some women were dragooned into sexual slavery.” The period of Japanese colonialism understandably left many Koreans with a deep animosity toward Japan, and the Kim family has continued to perpetuate this hostility in its official propaganda.
In addition, Japan, like South Korea, has been backed by the United States since the end of World War II, where America wanted to make its relationship with Tokyo a centerpiece of its postwar strategy in Asia.
Essentially, North Korea is alone in the world, with very few exceptions. But so far, it doesn’t seem to care all that much — at least, not enough to change its ways.
7) This is starting to get pretty bleak. Can we pause for a musical break?
Sure thing, especially since you made it this far. Here’s your North Korean jam, “Footsteps”:
Catchy, right? By the way, the version here has subtitles — you’re welcome — but it’s worth your time to watch a North Korean chorus sing it live with an orchestra at a big national concert.
There’s no doubt this song is propagandistic. It’s not a complicated song to understand: The Kim family’s message is “stepping with vigorous energy throughout this land.” In other words, the Stalinist ideology championed by the Kims in the 1950s is now the operating system of the whole country and may spread further and further.
North Korea, it’s fair to say, is a world-class innovator when it comes to propaganda. This country continues to roll out new messages and slogans, including 300 to mark the 70th anniversary of its founding in 2015. Here’s a shortened list the BBC provided:
- "Let us turn the whole country into a socialist fairyland by the joint operation of the army and people!"
- "Serve the country and people! Aid the people! Let the wives of officers become dependable assistants to their husbands!"
- "Let this socialist country resound with Song of Big Fish Haul and be permeated with the fragrant smell of fish and other seafoods!"
- "Scientists and technicians, stand in the vanguard of the struggle to build a thriving country that is developing, civilizing and advancing at a fast pace! Build 'gold mountains' and 'treasure mountains' with brilliant scientific and technological achievements!"
- "More stylish school uniforms and quality school things for our dear children!"
- "Let us raise the status of our country to that of a sports power at an earliest date possible! Play sports games in an offensive way, the way the anti-Japanese guerrillas did!"
A lot of North Korean propaganda comes in musical form, as we’ve seen. It’s a tool the state uses and blasts over the loudspeakers throughout the day, including the song “We are the Happiest in the World,” which I’m going to guess is untrue.
But as you can see, a lot of these slogans are about the Kim family, the improvement of mundane things like school uniforms, and the desire for scientific improvement. They are meant to cover nearly every aspect of North Korean life. But …
8) How much do the North Korean people believe the propaganda?
Given how little access outside journalists and academics have to North Korea, it’s really hard to know with any certainty how many North Koreans truly believe the regime’s propaganda and how many just pretend to believe it in order to survive. But North Korean defectors estimate that only about 20 to 50 percent of North Koreans today buy what the regime is selling.
This steady loss of support has been going on since the Great Famine of the 1990s that starved around 23 million North Koreans and killed around 10 percent of the population. The country was and remains an agricultural society. The problem is North Korea’s climate is tough: It’s a mountainous region with harsh winters. Plus, the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, and with it the help it provided North Korean farmers.
As a result, farm yields dwindled, and the government asked its citizens to “eat only two meals a day!” (Yes, with an exclamation mark.) It also didn’t help that in 1995, a big flood took out about 15 percent of North Korea’s arable land. As the food went away, so did a lot of the support for the government’s propaganda.
New technologies have also begun to play a role. As NK News reports:
[A]s new media technologies have emerged over the past decade or so – simultaneous to increasing numbers of defectors leaving North Korea – the effectiveness of the Pyongyang propaganda is increasingly coming into question. A combination of foreign DVDs, USB drives and defector-run radio stations are all slowly chipping away at the propaganda that Pyongyang monopolized for so long.
So while the propaganda is still prominent, there are clear signs that the Kim family’s grip on information is starting to slip. That’s a big development, and one that needs to be watched in the years to come.
9) How big of a threat is North Korea, actually?
We now know that North Korea appears capable, based on tests it has carried out,of firing a long-range missile that could hit all of the United States. And the US military believes North Korea has the capability to “miniaturize” a nuclear weapon and fit it onto that missile, though questions remain about how accurate their targeting is and whether a nuclear bomb would be able to survive reentry into Earth’s atmosphere using their current ICBM design.
Experts are more confident that if North Korea wanted to strike South Korea and Japan with a nuclear weapon, it could very likely do so. And any nuclear strike on those countries would put American troops stationed there directly in harm’s way.
This is partially why the United States has decided to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea to defend against certain missile strikes and why America is conducting missile interception tests with Japan.
But while the nuclear and missile programs get all the attention, a seriously underappreciated threat comes from North Korea’s arsenal of conventional weapons, including the world’s largest artillery force. And a third danger comes from the country’s elite special operations forces that could magnify the impact of a North Korean strike on South Korea.
South Korea’s capital city, Seoul, is a so-called “megacity” with a whopping 25.6 million residents living in the greater metropolitan area. It also happens to be within direct firing range of thousands of pieces of North Korean artillery already lined up along the border, also known as the demilitarized zone. Around 70 percent of North Korea’s ground forces are within 90 miles of the DMZ, presumably ready to move south at a moment’s notice.
Simulations of a large-scale artillery fight between the North and South produce pretty bleak results. One war game convened by the Atlantic back in 2005 predicted that a North Korean attack would kill 100,000 people in Seoul in the first few days alone. Others put the estimate even higher. A war game mentioned by the National Interest predicted Seoul could “be hit by over half-a-million shells in under an hour.”
My colleague Yochi Dreazen, who reported on what a war with North Korea might look like, came up with this depressing conclusion: “A full-blown war with North Korea wouldn’t be as bad as you think. It would be much, much worse.”
That leads to the most important question of all: What happens next? That, unfortunately, is the question we don’t have an answer for — but we might after Trump and Kim meet.